Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the bt_plugin domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /var/www/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6114
Blog – Page 10 – Wayne Messmer & Associates, LLC

Blog


No more posts

September 26, 2017

Jim Moynihan has been a registered representative at Wayne Messmer & Associates, LLC since 2013. Prior to joining the firm, he spent the past 25 years in leadership positions within corporate America and as a small business owner.

His focus at Wayne Messmer & Associates is to help individuals and families reach their financial goals and achieve a financially sound retirement. Chances are that if you are a client of the firm Jim has assisted you in most every aspect of your relationships with us.

Jim was born and raised in the Chicago area and graduated with high honors from Northeastern Illinois University earning a Bachelor degree in Political Science. He has long been active in his community supporting many causes over the years, particularly those concerning education and youth sports. He and his wife Joni have been married 43 years and reside in Schaumburg where they raised three children who have made them the proud grandparents of six incredible grandchildren.


iStock_000014993327Medium-1024x743.jpg

September 25, 2017

Domestic stocks closed a quiet — felt like summer — week on Friday with the market’s recent upward momentum intact, although continued geopolitical uncertainty limited buying appetite with major indexes near records. North Korea returned to the forefront after the country’s foreign minister Ri Yong Ho said late Thursday at a United Nations meeting that his country might consider a nuclear bomb of “unprecedented scale” in the Pacific. While geopolitical tensions have been elevated, some analysts think the stock market has become desensitized to the threats posed by conflict on the Korean peninsula.

 

The major indexes closed last week generally mixed overall. The large-cap benchmarks were flat to modestly higher, with both the S&P 500 and the narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average setting record highs early in the week before falling back a bit. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also hit new highs but ended the week down moderately. The smaller-cap benchmarks performed best for the week but stayed below the peaks they established in late July. Interest rate-sensitive utilities and real estate names performed poorly for the week as U.S. Treasury yields increased, and consumer staples shares also lagged. Energy stocks fared well as oil prices hit a three-month high, aided by increasing demand from refineries in the Gulf of Mexico coming back online. Financials also recorded solid gains on the increase in rates.

 

Some traders think that political developments continue to play a large role in driving sentiment, but there is no decisive directionality. Volatility was muted, and trading volumes remained subdued. Markets did not appear to react to President Trump’s strong words about North Korea on Tuesday, and the new threats in response from North Korea early Friday morning appeared to have only a limited impact when trading opened in New York, as noted above. Likewise, new Republican efforts to pass a health care bill (which took a hit Friday when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) announced that he would not support the latest bill) seemed to have little broad impact, although health care services stocks — particularly those of companies heavily reliant on Medicaid clients — fell sharply on Tuesday before recovering somewhat.

 

Traders also kept a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, but the results of the meeting were largely in line with expectations. The Fed kept rates steady but announced that, beginning in October, it would reduce the amount of payments on its reinvested bond holdings. The Fed had little impact on stocks but yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly touched their highest levels since early August following the meeting. An increased chance that the Fed will raise rates at its December meeting was partly behind the increase in yields, but some positive housing data may have also been a factor, with both August housing starts and new housing permits coming in above expectations.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 Index closed Friday a bit higher on the week. Eurozone economic data continued to show modest but steady improvement. Driven by strong results in France and Germany, the eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index, a common measure of economic activity, exceeded expectations and reached a four-month high. Consumer prices in the eurozone increased 1.5 percent year-over-year in August, the highest inflation reading since April and a modest increase over the prior month. Inflation is rising gradually, although it remains below the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target rate. Eurozone consumer confidence improved more than expected in September, according to the European Commission, and reached its highest level since April 2001.

 

German government bond yields largely tracked U.S. Treasuries directionally as Germans prepared to go to the polls on Sunday in federal elections. Ten-year German government note yields were somewhat higher for the week, finishing at around 0.45 percent. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union is widely expected to return as the largest vote-getting party, but pundits are uncertain if she will be able to garner the absolute majority necessary to form a government without coalition partners.

 

In Asia, Japanese stocks posted solid gains last week while the yen weakened and closed near ¥112 per U.S. dollar, which is about 4.2 percent stronger than at the end of 2016. After what had been a good week to that point, Chinese stocks fell on Friday after S&P cut its credit rating for China a notch to A+ from AA- over the country’s rising debt risk, an embarrassing setback for China’s government as it tries to preserve the appearance of economic stability before a key leadership transition next month. The decision marks S&P’s first ratings cut for China since 1999 and the second sovereign downgrade for China this year after a similar move in May by Moody’s.

 

“The downgrade reflects our assessment that a prolonged period of strong credit growth has increased China’s economic and financial risks,” S&P announced in a statement. Though China’s government has lately stepped up measures to curb rising corporate leverage that could stabilize risk in the medium term, “we foresee that credit growth in the next two to three years will remain at levels that will increase financial risks gradually,” the agency added.

 

rpseawright.com

 


[ctct form=”269″]



September 21, 2017

If you have ever called Wayne Messmer & Associates, you have probably spoken to Jenni. She has been with Wayne Messmer & Associates for almost 14 years. Jenni keeps all the schedules and in charge of all client outreach. She has lived in Chicago all her life and graduated from University of Illinois at Chicago.

She has this to say about her time at WMA,

I can describe it as my home away from home. We are family here. I have been working as an executive assistant for our financial advisors since I started here. It’s hard to believe but I started out with a daughter in middle school. Now, she is in her second year of Nursing School at Loyola University.

In her free time, she enjoys working out and kickboxing. She believes good health is true wealth. When she isn’t working out she loves do-it-yourself projects at home. With her daugher out at college, her dog Bentley keeps her plenty busy.

If you need a meeting with one of our advisors, be sure to ask for Jenni!


cropped-photo_alternative_investments-1024x256.png

September 18, 2017

Back In Business

Domestic stock benchmarks carved out another round of records on Friday to close out a good week, with a big assist from rallying telecommunication and bank shares, as Wall Street shook off North Korea’s latest missile launch. A great Monday, seen by many as something of a relief rally, set the tone for the week as multiple major benchmark indexes reached record highs multiple times. Monday’s burst of optimism came after the initial reports of damage from Hurricane Irma were not as severe as some pre-U.S. landfall estimates had projected. Stocks across the range of market capitalizations enjoyed similarly strong performance for the week.

 

Tech bellwether Apple announced the 10th anniversary version of the iPhone on Tuesday. Apple’s press event had little impact on the broader tech sector, and the company’s stock declined modestly on the day of the introduction before recovering to finish the week little changed. Apple shares had gained almost 40 percent in 2017 through the beginning of the week.

 

On Thursday, core inflation was up by a more than expected amount…and that got everyone talking. The Department of Commerce reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in August, breaking a recent string of lower-than-expected monthly inflation readings. Most observers think that this solid CPI number supports the Federal Reserve’s view that the recent inflation soft patch was transitory. A rate hike at the Fed’s December policy meeting now seems to be roughly a 50:50 proposition. Higher interest rates last week (see below) supported bank stocks. Higher long-term interest rates allow banks to generate more interest income from lending, helping to boost their profits.

The inflation news got the market’s chattering class returned to that golden oldie, “the Fed is behind the curve.” They may be right, of course, but it may also be just a routine jolt higher to a measure that, overall, has been “surprising” economists for years.

 

From Bloomberg:

 

Inflation may finally be getting back on track to reach the Federal Reserve’s goal, as the U.S. cost of living accelerated following a weak stretch of readings, Labor Department data showed Thursday.

 

The 0.2 percent rise in the core gauge ends a five-month streak of weaker-than-expected readings, and may soothe some concerns that inflation is slowing more broadly, though it will take more readings to determine whether the pickup can be sustained. The increase in the lodging category indicates the earlier decline in the sector was transitory.

 

Energy prices rose by the most since January and may reflect some impact from Hurricane Harvey. CPI data is collected throughout the month, and since the storm occurred in late August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects most of the data to come from before the storm, BLS economist Steve Reed said Wednesday. Data collection was disrupted in two of the 87 U.S. urban areas where prices are gathered.

 

As always, we cannot be anything close to sure. But it surely is too soon to making portfolio changes as a consequence.

 

U.S. Treasury yields increased last week, with much of the selling pressure coming at the beginning of the week as demand for safe-haven assets waned on North Korea and Hurricane Irma news. The strong August CPI report compounded the sell-off, particularly in shorter maturities that are more sensitive to increases in the federal funds rate, by boosting the odds that the Fed will raise rates at its December policy meeting. Prices of fed funds futures contracts at the end of last week showed that traders were pricing in an approximately 50 percent chance of a rate hike in December.

 

European equities ended last week higher too, as auto and tech stocks gained and favorable economic news provided a lift for key indexes. Eurozone statistics agency Eurostat reported that wages in the region rose 2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, when the eurozone grew at its fastest pace in two years. Banks and mining stocks headed lower, reflecting some shifting by investors out of riskier assets into safer havens. On Friday, a morning rush hour explosion at a southwest London Underground station, labeled by police as a “terrorist incident,” dragged down travel and leisure stocks most notably, though a broad swath of sectors tumbled following the explosion.

 

The major Japanese stock market benchmarks posted solid gains last week. The widely watched Nikkei 225 was up 3.29 percent on the week. The yen closed the week at 110.66 versus the U.S. dollar, a gain of 2.54 percent against the prior week. However, the yen has declined 5.44 percent against the dollar YTD. Elsewhere in Asia, China’s latest batch of monthly indicators showed that the country’s economy unexpectedly slowed in August, offering more evidence that it has entered a slowdown after a sluggish July. Large cap Chinese stocks were still up a bit last week.

rpseawright.com


[ctct form=”269″]


iStock_000019745348Medium-1024x682.jpg

September 11, 2017

Mostly Lower

Domestic stocks recorded modest losses last week. Energy stocks were strong early in the week as crude oil prices advanced, while health care, utilities, and real estate stocks ended the week with some positive momentum. Consumer discretionary, financial, and tech names lagged. Mid-cap shares were particularly weak and ended the week the furthest off their recent peaks, down roughly 4.3 percent from their record highs earlier this summer.

 

The markets took a big hit on Tuesday after the holiday weekend. Lots of ideas were floated as to why the markets reacted to circumstances that were not new and had not caused a major reaction previously. Pick from a typical parade of horribles: an increasing likelihood of military conflict between North Korea and the U.S., including the possibility of nuclear showdown; the lack of political consensus on raising the debt ceiling; the economic impact of hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and whatever the next one after that is called. Maybe it was the disappointing jobs report the previous Friday. Perhaps it was summer ending, and everyone back at their desks and lighting up out of a plethora of caution. All or none of those could have been “the” reason, if a reason exists. As ever, I am skeptical of assigning any reason to the random nature of short-term market movement.

 

Sentiment may also have been dampened by a speech by Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, who stated that recent Fed rate hikes have been detrimental to the U.S. economy. Kashkari’s comments appeared to push down long-term U.S. Treasury yields in particular (see below), which weighed on bank stocks. The financial sector also took a hit from insurance stocks, which wavered in anticipation of losses from Hurricane Irma on top of those from Hurricane Harvey.

 

Stocks regained some strength midweek, thanks in part to news of a deal in Washington to delay debt ceiling and budget fights until December. With deadlines looming at the end of September to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling, President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders agreed Wednesday to surprising three-month extensions for both in legislation attached to emergency funding for Hurricane Harvey relief. President Trump’s new willingness to work with Democrats and cut-out Republicans led to new worries about how he would get along with his ostensible party on tax reform, however. Reports that the conservative House Freedom Caucus had begun drafting its own tax plan seemed to weigh on sentiment on Thursday, along with continued worries about Irma and North Korea.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased sharply on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level since just before the November 2016 elections. The yield decline continued through Thursday morning. Falling longer-term yields and reduced expectations for another rate hike from the Fed in December contributed in turn to a decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to its lowest level since the start of 2015, as measured against a basket of foreign currencies.

European equities, weighed down by geopolitical concerns, the euro’s strength, and some negative economic news, ended the week mostly lower. Within the pan-European benchmark Stoxx 600 index, the banking sector, most notably insurance stocks, was weak due to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and the threat of Jose. The euro’s strength put further pressure on European exporters, whose goods become more expensive for overseas buyers as the eurozone currency strengthens.

 

In Asia, Japanese stocks declined last week and the yen dropped nearly two percent versus the dollar. Chinese stocks were lower too. Despite recent gains in Chinese reserves, a faster-than-expected slowdown and a resumption of capital outflows still pose risks to China’s outlook.

rpseawright.com

[ctct form=”269″]


iStock_000002698323Medium-1024x679.jpg

September 11, 2017

Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn—they’ve all fallen prey to hackers who exposed passwords and other personal information for hundreds of thousands of their users. If you haven’t yet had your password stolen, chances are, it may be only a matter of time.

Hearing the word “hacker” may conjure up the image of a teenaged wiz-kid up all night systematically trying to guess at passwords. But hacking has become a much more complex, sophisticated, and lucrative operation. Breached passwords can fetch big money on the black market.¹

So, what does that mean to you? It means your passwords are valuable and vulnerable commodities. There are steps you can take to help foil hackers and protect your privacy. Consider these strategies for protecting your passwords.

No Plain English

Simple strings of numbers, along with passwords that can be found in the dictionary, are the easiest to crack. Microsoft suggests that your password should contain one or more upper- and lower-case characters, numbers, symbols, and even unicode characters.2

Fast Fact: According to the Insurance Information Institute, there were over 1,000 cybercrime data breaches in 2016, exposing more than 36 million personal records.
–Insurance Information Institute, 2017

Mix It Up

Many people use the same password for multiple accounts because it’s easier to remember. But this could lead to serious consequences. You may not be too concerned about the personal information stored in your LinkedIn or Twitter accounts, but what would happen if hackers used your compromised password to access your email, brokerage, or bank accounts? If you have trouble remembering multiple passwords, you may want to keep a list, but don’t store it on your desktop or in your inbox. Give the file a misleading name and bury it where only you can find it.

Favor Length and Complexity

The longer your password, the more difficult it will be to crack. Instead of a password, consider using a favorite movie quote, song lyric, or poem. To make your password even stronger, string together only the first couple letters of each word in the phrase. Another strategy involves simply jamming on the keyboard, intermittently hitting Shift and Alt keys until you have a password you’re satisfied with. For sensitive accounts, it may make sense to change your passwords on a regular basis. If you like the idea of optimal password protection but worry you won’t be able to handle multiple changing passwords, password-protection software can help you organize, store, and use password data.

There’s no such thing as an impregnable password. Still, putting personal information behind a basic password is like leaving your Porsche in a parking lot with your keys on the dash. By taking preventative measures to strengthen your password, you may be able to help safeguard your sensitive personal data and your privacy.

Recognize Any of These?

Take a look at the most common passwords, according to Keeper Security. If your password is one of these, it might be time to make a change.

  1. 123456
  2. 123456789
  3. qwerty
  4. 12345678
  5. 111111
  6. 1234567890
  7. 1234567
  8. password
  9. 123123
  10. 987654321

[ctct form=”269″]

Keeper Security, January 13, 2017
1 PCWorld.com, August 2, 2016
2 Microsoft.com, 2016
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2017 FMG Suite.

iStock_000020444478Medium-1024x682.jpg

September 5, 2017

Higher, but Quietly (Again)

U.S. equities finished last week and the first trading day of September with a gain Friday, on expectations that a weaker-than-expected rise in August nonfarm payrolls could dull the Federal Reserve’s desire further to raise borrowing costs in 2017. Small caps outperformed large caps for the week and foreign stocks generally outperformed domestic names. Trading was very light all week ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, but the S&P 500 did see its first four-day winning streak since July. The European, Asian and gold markets all were higher last week.

 

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a weaker than expected jobs gain for August with prior month revisions subtracting even more jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent. This disappointing report probably won’t halt the Federal Reserve’s plans to begin reducing its balance sheet soon, perhaps later this month. However, the chances of a December rate from the Fed dropped to 42 percent, according to CME Group fed funds futures. U.S. factories ramped up in August to the fastest pace of expansion in six years, driven by employment gains, figures from the Institute for Supply Management showed, and consumer sentiment climbed to a three-month high amid an improving outlook for household finances and the economy, according to a University of Michigan report.

 

Construction spending unexpectedly declined in July. Sector spending fell 0.6 percent, compounding a 1.4 percent drop in June. Analysts anticipated an increase of 0.6 percent. Private construction dipped 0.4 percent, while public construction slumped 1.4 percent. Oil prices were erratic but mostly lower last week as traders assessed the impact of Hurricane Harvey on drilling and refining activity in the Texas/Louisiana area. Harvey has forced the shutdown of some major refineries along the Gulf Coast. According to some estimates, about a quarter of the U.S. refining industry was shut down.

rpseawright.com

[ctct form=”269″]


photo_equipment_leasing.png

August 29, 2017

Higher, but Quietly

U.S. stocks recorded gains last week, mostly due to a solid rally on Tuesday. Trading volumes were light, however, with the number of shares traded on Wednesday falling to the lowest level of the year so far, according to The Wall Street Journal. Trading was choppy as earning season mostly wrapped up and focus began to shift toward the coming budget and debt ceiling battles in Washington.

 

Energy stocks rebounded last week from their losses the previous week, and real estate shares were also particularly strong. Consumer staples stocks – grocers, in particular – were notably weak following Amazon’s announcement that it would soon lower some prices at its recently acquired Whole Foods stores. Advertising stocks also fell sharply after UK-based industry leader WPP lowered its growth forecasts, citing “increasing social, political, and economic volatility.”

 

With the second-quarter earnings reporting season largely complete, economic data and political news continued to drive sentiment last week. One important factor in Tuesday’s rally appeared to be a report in Politico that Republican lawmakers were making progress behind the scenes on tax reform legislation. According to the report, a consensus was emerging among top administration and congressional officials on ways to pay for cuts to individual and corporate tax rates, including capping the mortgage interest deduction and eliminating the deduction for state and local tax payments. Businesses would no longer be able to deduct interest payments, according to the report.

 

Political concerns seemed to weigh on the market later in the week, however. The market’s pullback on Wednesday appeared to be due in part to President Trump’s threat at a campaign rally the previous night to allow a shutdown of the federal government at the end of September if Congress does not approve funding for the border wall he has repeatedly assured voters that Mexico would pay for. Traders may have also reacted negatively to his warning that the U.S. may pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Finally, some appeared to worry about the president’s tweets later in the week, in which he criticized Republican leaders for not having arranged to raise the debt limit as part of recent legislation benefiting veterans.

 

A mixed bag of economic data left longer-term U.S. Treasury yields largely unchanged last week. Surveys indicated slowing growth in manufacturing activity, but the much larger services sector appeared to be gaining strength. New home sales declined in July, but this decline was offset somewhat by upward revisions to numbers for prior months. Existing home sales also fell, due mainly to a decline in sales of condominiums. Conversely, July durable goods orders surprised on the upside, due largely to strong shipments of capital goods, excluding defense and aircraft, suggesting some momentum in business fixed investment.

 

Trading in European markets was also light last week and traders there were seemingly cautious in anticipation of guidance from central bankers attending the annual Jackson Hole symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended slightly higher. The London benchmark FTSE 100 Index closed the week higher, spurred by a weaker pound, which helps boost shares of multinational companies with earnings in other currencies, and a general uptick in the performance of UK-based companies. However, European equity funds logged their first outflow in seven weeks, according to fund flows tracked by EPFR.

 

In Asia, Japanese stocks posted mixed performance last week, with small-caps outperforming large-caps, while the yen weakened modestly versus the U.S. dollar. In China, the economy will expand more than previously forecast in the next few years, according to the International Monetary Fund, causing Chinese stocks to gap higher last week. However, the growth spurt will be accompanied by a higher-than-expected surge in governmental borrowing that could push China’s debt load to 300 percent of its overall economic output, raising the risk of a sudden downturn. The IMF’s latest outlook on China forecasts economic growth to average 6.4 percent from 2017 to 2021, up from a year-ago forecast of 6.0 percent average growth.

 

rpseawright.com

 

[ctct form=”269″]


photo_investing.png

August 22, 2017

 

Volatility Returns

Last week’s news was dominated by politics, and the market turned in an unsteady performance. Stocks rebounded on Monday as North Korean fears eased but then tanked on Thursday due to earnings weakness and more terrorism abroad. The announced departure of White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon came after the close of trading for the week on Friday.

 

Stocks ended last week lower even though the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day gain in nearly four months on Monday because the gains were all given back on Thursday, falling the most in three months. For its part, the Dow’s 274-point drop on Thursday put an end to 63 straight trading sessions without a swing of 1 percent in either direction, the longest such streak since 1995, according to The Wall Street Journal. Falling oil prices led energy stocks to suffer the worst declines during the week. It is safe to say that, at least for now, volatility is back.

 

Waning tensions with North Korea (or at least a sense that tensions were waning) provided much of the basis for the stock market’s strong start to the week, as equity gains corresponded with a sell-off in safe haven assets, such as U.S. Treasury paper, the Japanese yen, and gold. Statements by President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s reiterating their desire to “de-nuclearize” the Korean Peninsula were crucial in this regard. Trading volumes were especially light, however, as is typical during the August vacation season.

 

The political backdrop appeared to darken as the week progressed, however. The controversy surrounding President Trump’s response to the recent violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, appeared to be weighing on sentiment, especially after the disbanding of two CEO advisory councils following the resignations of several members amidst conflicting reports as to whether the president or the CEOs instigated the disbanding. These worries seemed to boil over Thursday morning, when rumors surfaced that Gary Cohn, the president’s chief economic advisor, was also considering stepping down. The White House quickly denied the reports, but the market’s losses accelerated on Thursday afternoon, with news of the terrorist attack in Barcelona, Spain, further weighing on sentiment.

 

On the earnings front, retailers had a lousy week, despite some signs of stabilization from Target and Walmart. In technology, shares of Cisco fell over 4 percent Thursday after the firm announced results suggesting weakness across its legacy hardware portfolio.

 

U.S. Treasuries were mostly flat for the week. Yields inched up early in the week on hawkish statements by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Minutes from July’s FMOC meeting reinforced expectations for an announcement of the beginning of balance sheet unwinding at the Fed’s September 19-20 meeting, but concerns about stubbornly low inflation were also highlighted. Stronger-than-expected retail sales figures also pushed yields a bit higher. Fears that President Trump’s political controversies would derail his administration’s pro-growth policies pushed yields lower on Thursday, however. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched its lowest level in several weeks.

 

European equities logged three consecutive days of gains before trading well into the red the remaining two days of the week. Banks and industrials began the week strong as investor appetite for risk recovered from the previous week’s losses. The continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which makes products from European companies less expensive for U.S. purchasers, supported European gains.

 

As the week closed, a stark reversal in stock gains reflected geopolitical volatility and tentative trading sentiment over growing doubts that the U.S. might not raise interest rates again this year. Banks in the pan-European Stoxx 600 dropped nearly 2 percent on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop since May. Many large European banks are particularly sensitive to U.S. economic news because they have major operations in the U.S. Moreover, European stocks traded lower after the release of the minutes from last month’s European Central Bank meeting revealed concern about weak underlying inflation and the continued rise of the euro.

 

Spanish stocks fell following a terrorist attack in a tourist-heavy section of Barcelona that killed at least 13 people and injured more than 100 and another attack in Cambrils, a town southwest of Barcelona. In Spain’s IBEX 35 index, airlines, hotels, and other tourism-related stocks bore the brunt of losses. These losses filtered out into the wider European markets too.

 

The broad Japanese stock market declined for the week. After strengthening versus the dollar for five consecutive weeks, the yen was virtually unchanged versus the buck for the week. Elsewhere in Asia, a batch of indicators for July showed that China’s growth slowed from the previous month, suggesting that the economy has entered a broad slowdown after a surprisingly strong first half of 2017. However, Chinese stocks were mostly a bit higher last week.

 

rpseawright.com

 

[ctct form=”269″]

 


iStock_000014993327Medium-1024x743.jpg

August 15, 2017

Lower Everywhere

Growing concerns about the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and some disappointing corporate earnings reports sent the major U.S. equity benchmarks lower last week. The Dow’s streak of nine straight record-setting high closes ended Tuesday, as President Trump threatened war with North Korea in response to the DPRK’s nuclear provocations. Greater losses followed on Thursday. Just for that day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost more than 2 percent, the broad-based S&P 500 lost nearly 1.5 percent and the blue chip Dow was off nearly 1 percent. Mid and small caps lost even more. However, given the nature of the threat, the losses were very small. Moreover, markets generated mostly positive numbers, albeit small ones, on Friday.

 

Tuesday’s aggressive rhetoric from the president briefly caused the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index to rise as traders finally seemed to expect some volatility. Then the market appeared to remember that it was not reacting to political news anymore, and vol subsided again. But on Thursday, when the president upped the ante, the markets finally started to freak out, at least a little (before mellowing out a bit on Friday):

 

“Stocks fell the most since May on Thursday, extending a decline that began when President Donald Trump warned North Korea over aggression. The S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent, while the CBOE Volatility Index jumped 44 percent to bring its three-day rise to 62 percent. It was the first close above 16 for the VIX since the day of the U.S. election.”

 

The VIX is still below its historical average, but the move represents a clear shift from the months of discussion about how low VIX levels combined with high levels of geopolitical uncertainty and general domestic political craziness meant that the market was complacent. More particularly, Thursday’s sell-off ended a period of record-low volatility during which the S&P 500 had gone 15 days without moving more than 0.30 percent.

 

Equities recovered a bit on Friday. Despite the down week overall, U.S. large-cap stocks and the tech-heavy Nasdaq still have substantial year-to-date gains, while small- and mid-cap shares are holding on to smaller gains. Gold performed well again last week and has been strong in 2017 after years of decline.

 

In name-specific news, Walt Disney traded down after reporting weak second-quarter results that included declines in the number of its cable network subscribers (primarily from ESPN, yet again) and decreasing advertising revenue. Disney’s announcement that it intends to focus on distributing its own content to consumers weighed on Netflix shares. Several major retailers also lost ground after disappointing earnings reports, including Macy’s, which declined more than 10 percent on Thursday. JCPenney suffered an all-time low.

 

Snap and Blue Apron, which were two of the more prominent tech IPOs this year (Blue Apron is typically described as a tech company, but hardly seems like one), both reported earnings last week too. They were lousy (sample headline: “Blue Apron Stock Is Now Worth Far Less Than One of Its Meals”). Blue Apron’s popularity declined in its first quarter as a public company while Snap’s daily active users keep growing, but at declining and disappointing rates. These problems are reflected in their stock prices. Blue Apron is trading at barely half of its IPO price while Snap is trading about 20 percent lower. Of course, IPOs generally underperform, but the market will not look kindly at a run of popular but unprofitable IPOs.

 

Demand for safe-haven securities pushed the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note down below 2.20 percent by Friday, its lowest level since June. Credit spreads – the additional yield that investors demand for holding a bond with credit risk – widened throughout the week. Geopolitical tensions, new supply, and some disappointing earnings reports contributed to the weakness in both the investment grade corporate and high yield bond markets.

 

According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index rose only 0.1 percent in July, less than consensus expectations. Over the past 12 months, prices have increased a mere 1.7 percent, which is less than the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target. Motor vehicle prices continue to fall, as dealers work through new car inventories and deal with a glut of used cars coming from rental car companies, among other factors. Besides vehicles, core goods (which exclude the food and energy sectors) posted a small increase, likely showing some impact from recent dollar weakness. In separate reports, job openings reached a record high in June, while new jobless claims remained near historic lows, although they ticked up from the previous week.

 

European stocks also fell and volatility spiked there as well amidst the rhetorical jousting between the U.S. and the DPRK, overshadowing last week’s upbeat European corporate earnings results. Basic resources stocks led the march downward, further fueled by a commodities sell-off and a cautionary statement from China on iron ore prices. The banking and oil and gas sectors as well as some tech stocks were also weak. The pan-European benchmark Stoxx 600 logged three consecutive days of losses, ending the week nearly 3 percent lower, one of its worst weekly losses this year. The FTSE 100 hit a three-month-low on Friday, and on Thursday Germany’s DAX 30 briefly traded below the 12,000 level for the first time since April.

 

Japanese stocks also suffered losses last week. The widely watched Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell more than a point and is now up barely more than 3 percent YTD, although the broad-based TOPIX is up 6.5 percent and the TOPIX Small Index has advanced more than 13 percent this year. The yen strengthened versus the dollar for a fifth consecutive week.

 

China’s foreign currency reserves increased more than forecast in July to a nine-month high, signaling that Beijing’s efforts to curb capital outflows have been successful. Reserves rose for the sixth straight month to $3.081 trillion, up $23.93 billion from June, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported. The recent string of monthly increases in China’s cash stockpile, the world’s biggest, follows measures implemented by the PBOC over the past year aimed at making it harder for Chinese investors and companies to move money abroad, which increases downward pressure on the yuan. The Chinese stock market lost over 2 percent for the week but is still up 21 percent on the year.

 

-rpseawright.com

 

[ctct form=”269″]